SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Using The Internet To Market Your Window Cleaning Business

You’re tired of struggling financially and you need to create an alternative source of income. After considering the options, you decide to start a window cleaning business. You’ve scoured the internet for information on how to clean windows and you’ve practiced at home until you feel confident enough to offer your services to others. You have the money to invest in some squeegees, a couple of ladders and some business cards. Now what?Time To Advertise!Using the internet to market your window cleaning business offers a lot of advantages over traditional advertising. Advertising on the internet is absolutely the most cost-effective means of marketing available today and it can be very effective. In March of 2010, BIA (bia.com) and The Kelsey Group (kelseygroup.com) reported that, ”nearly all consumers (97 %) now use online media when researching products or services in their local area…”Having an internet presence means that your business information is available to anyone at anytime. As potential customers browse the internet, they can discover your business and the services you offer at a time that’s convenient to them and without any obligation or any of the pressure some people associate with ‘being sold’.If you’re starting your business with a limited budget, the most attractive advantage of internet marketing is probably the cost.Free AdvertisingIn some markets, using the free local listing sites on the internet may be enough to get you going. Potential customers are already searching for the goods or services you provide – they just need to be able to find you.Google PlacesSigning up for Google Places is simple and offers an opportunity to make sure your business can be found on Google and on Google Maps. With a Google Places listing, you can create an online presence even if you don’t have a website. It only takes a couple of minutes and it’s completely free.Start by reading the Google Places quality guidelines to make sure your listing will be approved. Then go to Google Places and sign in with your Google account. If you don’t already have a Google account, sign up for one, they’re free. Google keeps track of the number of times your listing is viewed during a Google search so you can track how effective the listing is. Once your account is verified, you can continue to edit the listing as often as needed to insure the best results.Yahoo Local ListingsYahoo local listings operates much in the same way as Google Places. Again, this is an opportunity to create a web presence that doesn’t require having a website. You can list your business name, address, contact information and the unique selling opportunity that your business offers. Your listing can include your products, services and brands in up to five categories.Start by going to the Yahoo Local signup page. If you don’t already have a Yahoo account, sign up for one. There is no charge for a Yahoo account and it only takes a few minutes to register.Bing Local ListingsMicrosoft also has a free local listing service similar to Google Places and Yahoo Local Listings. Start by going to the Bing Local Listings signup page and enter your information. Again, if you don’t already have a Bing account, you can sign up for one in a couple of minutes and there is no charge.Bing Local Listings lets users look for services in their local area which makes it easy for new customers to find you. Once your listing is verified you can log on to the Bing Local site and edit your listing to match any changes you may want to make as your business grows.Online ReviewsAll of the free local listing sites mentioned here also allow your customers to leave a brief review of their experience with you and your company. This can be a great tool to drive business from the internet to your front door. Most people today already have an email account with one of the ‘big three’, Google, Yahoo or Bing. Be sure to ask your customers if they would mind taking a few minutes and leaving a review of your company’s service on one of the local listing sites. If they’re happy with your service they’ll probably be glad to.After your window cleaning business has generated some income you may want to enlarge your internet presence with a business website. While the free listing sites do a great job of getting you started, a business website designed to target your local market is a definite must if you want to continue to grow your business and increase your income.More about business websites in the next article.

S&P 500 Rallies As U.S. Dollar Pulls Back Towards Weekly Lows

Key Insights
The strong pullback in the U.S. dollar provided significant support to stocks.
Treasury yields have pulled back after touching new highs, which served as an additional positive catalyst for S&P 500.
A move above 3730 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 3760.
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Pfizer Rallies After Announcing A Huge Price Hike For Its COVID-19 Vaccines
S&P 500 is currently trying to settle above 3730 as traders’ appetite for risk is growing. The U.S. dollar has recently gained strong downside momentum as the BoJ intervened to stop the rally in USD/JPY. Weaker U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks as it increases profits of multinational companies and makes U.S. equities cheaper for foreign investors.

The leading oil services company Schlumberger is up by 9% after beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Schlumberger’s peers Baker Hughes and Halliburton have also enjoyed strong support today.

Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna gained strong upside momentum after Pfizer announced that it will raise the price of its coronavirus vaccine to $110 – $130 per shot.

Biggest losers today include Verizon and Twitter. Verizon is down by 5% despite beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Subscriber numbers missed estimates, and traders pushed the stock to multi-year lows.

Twitter stock moved towards the $50 level as the U.S. may conduct a security review of Musk’s purchase of the company.

From a big picture point of view, today’s rebound is broad, and most market segments are moving higher. Treasury yields have started to move lower after testing new highs, providing additional support to S&P 500. It looks that some traders are ready to bet that Fed will be less hawkish than previously expected.

S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 3730

S&P 500 has recently managed to get above the 20 EMA and is trying to settle above the resistance at 3730. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 manages to settle above 3730, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3760. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance at October highs at 3805. The 50 EMA is located in the nearby, so S&P 500 will likely face strong resistance above the 3800 level.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 3700 will likely serve as the first support level for S&P 500. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level at 3675. A move below 3675 will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3640.